Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
